MEMBER HIGHLIGHT - SER member Gontran de Quillacq recently shared an article titled “Prediction Markets and the New Insider Trading Problem: Event Contracts, CFTC Jurisdiction, and Emerging Case Law.” He examines how prediction markets have evolved into regulated event-contract markets under the Commodity Exchange Act, bringing with them many of the same legal and market-abuse concerns seen in traditional financial litigation, including insider trading, manipulation, and the misuse of nonpublic information. He outlines the regulatory history, the CFTC’s March 2026 rulemaking initiative, and the developing case law, including ongoing disputes over whether federal law preempts state gambling restrictions. He concludes that as prediction markets grow, the resulting litigation will require the same kind of rigorous expert analysis seen in complex securities matters, including instrument analysis, market microstructure evidence, and close attention to information asymmetries. Gontran is the Managing Partner of Navesink International. You can read the full article on his website along with other insights on his blog.
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